The cornerstone of the Trottier Energy Futures Project is a quantitative model built on the Canadian Energy System Simulator (CanESS). The model is the foundation for developing a series of scenarios to reduce Canada’s annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from more than 700 megatonnes (Mt) in 2050 to a goal of 100 Mt—an 80% reduction from Canada’s 1990 baseline of 500 Mt.
CanESS is a relatively structured model based on the best available data on the Canadian energy system. The TEFP is using CanESS to calculate the GHG implications of different visions of Canada’s energy future, and will feed the results of its stakeholder engagement sessions into the model. Whenever a TEFP consultation or engagement takes place, participants are asked to frame their recommendations so they can be expressed as inputs to the model. That way, the best knowledge and expertise from outside the world of energy, climate, and carbon helps shape our solutions to the 80% challenge.